Snapshot
Apple and Google will exert significant negotiating power over wireless carriers as mobile wallets and NFC takes off. By 2016 its forecasted that almost half a billion users will have NFC enabled mobile wallets.

 

 

Key Points

  • Near Field Communication (NFC) hardware and software will become standard in future smartphone devices enabling services such as mobile wallets.
  • Although wireless carriers or mobile network operators (MNO) will initially be providing the majority of mobile wallet type services their dominance will significantly erode as Google and Apple deploy their comprehensive solutions.
  • ABI forecasts that Google Wallet and Apple’s wallet solution will take over mobile payments between 2012 and 2016.
  • Wireless carriers will provide 75% of mobile wallets in 2012 shrinking to 63% by 2016.
  • One of the reasons for Google wallets success will be it’s penetration into markets where wireless carriers will choose not to invest in due to high capital and infrastructure costs required for their mobile wallet solutions.
  • ABI believes that some carriers will partner with Google to roll out out joint solutions that are mutually beneficial.
  • Although not yet officially announced ABI believes Apple will launch a competing mobile wallet solution that will compete with Google and the wireless carriers.
  • It is forecasted that NFC based mobile wallets will reach 594 million users by 2016 worldwide. Primary reasons for growth includes:
      • Large availability of smartphones with NFC chips through wireless mobile carriers. Especially in the US, Western Europe, Japan and Korea.
      • Merchant opportunities ROI is significant enough to pull mobile wallet ecosystem players together.
  • Banks and other financial institutions will offer their own services however because they are not tied into a smartphone vendor ecosystem they will likely end up owning niche segments.
  • By 2014 wireless carriers will incorporate both mobile OS based wallets (Google, Apple) as well as over the top services from banks. However this will mark the slow down of over the top services and growth in mobile OS based solutions.
  • Analysis:
      • “By the end of 2012, Google will prove that Google Wallet is a hit with consumers. By 2014, we will see Google Wallets supported alongside competing MNO offerings globally,” says Mark Beccue, senior analyst, mobile commerce and NFC.
      • “Apple will launch a mobile wallet product in 2012. Apple’s MNO partners will allow Apple to offer their mobile wallet to consumers who have iPhones, regardless of whether or not the MNO has a competing mobile wallet,” says Beccue.

 

 

Source ABI Researsch (November 23, 2011)

Reference ABI Researsch

Image the items I carry version 2.0 by Metaphox

 

 

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